Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Ollie Gordon II (RB, OKST) boasts an ownership projection of 65.69%, the highest on the slate. His salary of $7900 reflects his expected performance, but is supported by an absurd median projection of 35.62. At the quarterback spot, Noah Fifita (ARIZ) is drawing the highest ownership at 41.98%. Priced at $6000 and with a median projection of 24.38 against COL, Fifita stands out as a strong value. At the wide receiver position, Lincoln Victor (WSU) leads the pack with 58.90% ownership due to his strong median projection of 24.22 and affordable salary of $5800. Keep an eye on injury news as a pair of value RBs could see high ownership as well. Coleman (RB, ARI) and Nubin (RB, MINN) could see substantial ownership if thrust into starting roles.
- ARI, WSU, OKST and UCF look to be the primary choices for stacking based on the high ownership of their players. Notably, seven of the ten highest-owned players on the slate are from these teams. Additionally, UCF is playing OKST meaning game stacks involving these players could also be popular. However, teams like UW, COL, MIZZ and CAL are under-owned relative to their ceiling and should be considered for GPPs.
- For those looking to diversify their lineups, players like Ray Davis, Jeremiah Hunter, and Brady Cook have ownership projected below 10% but still boast high ceilings. Furthermore, spending up at multiple RB spots today will inherently give you a contrarian roster construction.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
CFB Cash Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
QB: Noah Fifita
RB: Ollie Gordon II
WR1: Lincoln Victor
WR2: Jacob Cowing OR Tetairoa McMillan
Flex: Mahki Hughes
CFB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
QB: Brady Cook
RB: Ray Davis
WR1: Jeremiah Hunter
WR2: Travis Hunter
Flex: Ja'Quinden Johnson
DFS Stack Considerations
COL (University of Colorado)
UW (University of Washington)
CAL (University of California – Berkeley)
CFB DFS Final Thoughts
The other side of popular matchups today are going overlooked despite having strong projections and upside. These teams include CAL, COL, and the pass catchers from UCF. Rostering these teams and players can be a way to differentiate your lineup in large tournaments. Additionally, there are several high-total games that are carrying low ownership. Focusing heavily on KU/TTU and TENN/MIZZ could be a profitable strategy. Much of the ownership today is on players from the late afternoon games. Therefore, targeting lower-owned/high upside teams or game environments particularly in the noon set of games could be a strong strategy in GPPs.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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