Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Today's DFS slate is pretty straight forward. Strider, Stroman, and Gilbert will be the popular options at pitcher while people jam in Coors bats (PIT and COL). Additionally, cheap lead-off Volpe and Judge are projected to be popular plays from the Yankees. Outside of Coors the next highest implied totals are the Yankees, Orioles, Rangers, and Dodgers.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, Chris Sale*, Nathan Eovaldi
* The numbers say Sale still has good stuff, but he's gotten really unlucky to start the season. That said, he has seen a decline from his prime and at high ownership would be worth a fade. Conversely, at low ownership he's a great GPP play.
Zeros: Jose Urena, Ken Waldichuk, Dean Kremer, Colin Rea, Clayton Kershaw*
*We are witnessing the end of an era with Kershaw. While a lot of this has to do with him getting destroyed by lefties to start the season, he is in the ending arc of his career. Kershaw is still too good to every truly fall off, but his DFS ceiling isn't what it once was.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Spencer Strider
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Ji Hwan Bae
3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes
SS: Rodolfo Castro
OF: Jack Suwinski
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Chris Sale
1B: Ty France
2B: Gleyber Torres
3B: Eduardo Escobar
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Julio Rodriguez
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Cardinals
Astros
Mariners
Nationals
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
The chalk construction is going to be Spencer Strider with Coors as you can easily fit it on both DFS sites. Additionally, Gilbert/Stroman will be the chalk SP2 options on Draftkings. While there are no direct pivots off of Strider on Draftkings, there are several pivot options at SP2. These include Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale, and Sonny Gray. On Fanduel there is an overpriced Stroman more expensive than Strider, or Gilbert for a little less. Considering the rule of 3 we have our chalk SP1, chalk stack, and chalk SP2 (DK)/chalk secondary stack(FD). In small field GPPs fade at least one, and in large field GPPs fade at least two. Good luck!
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