Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- As it currently stands, the slate is being built around the Cardinals and Pirates.
- The pitcher ownership is condensing around Trevor Rogers, Justin Steele, and Brady Singer which tells you all you need to know about the quality of arms on this slate.
- Models are high on the Cardinals who are the most popular team to stack, which tells us the most important thing to do is find leverage at pitcher.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Jose Berrios, Mackenzie Gore, Griffin Canning
All three of the top True AVG pitchers have some power problems, which speaks to the volatility of this slate. It's worth nothing that Berrios is considerably better against RHH and should face a majority of them in the Astros lineup today.
Zeros: Nick Martinez, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Steele*
* Steele is a pretty good pitcher, but he has some real problems when dealing with RHH. Unlucky for him, the Athletics should have up to 7 RHH in their order today. The big issue is Steele has been really lucky with both BABIP and home run rates against RHH. What seems like an easy matchup on the surface isn't quite so because of these splits.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Trevor Rogers
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Rodolfo Castro
3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes
SS: Tommy Edman
OF: Connor Joe
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Alex Cobb
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Jake Burger
SS: Tommy Edman
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr.
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
This slate isn't as straight forward as yesterday mostly because the pitching options are trash. There's an important spot with Max Scherzer that requires some more digging, but outside of him all the arms are suspect. The easiest way to build in small field GPPs is going to be a combo of Alex Cobb and Trevor Rogers with one of STL/PIT as your main stack. Secondary stack considerations are going to be built around studs because of the low pricing on pitching, so expect guys like Acuna and Aaron Judge to be available. Don't be scared of the downside today as bad pitching slates are typically highly variant. Good luck and let's collect some trophies!
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