Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- As it currently stands, the slate is being built around the Dodgers, Padres, and Phillies.
- The pitcher ownership is condensing around Kodai Senga, Roansy Contreras, and Matt Strahm, all of whom rate as fine-ish, but not great.
- Models are high on the Padres who are one of the most popular teams to stack, which tells us the most important things to do are find leverage at pitcher and/or secondary stack.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Ryan Feltner*, Michael Wacha, Javier Assad*
Feltner may be a surprise to see at the top of the True AVG model but here we are. This is a classic case of a pitcher that is facing a popular stack not rating as trash, but also not being all that good either. The best approach here would be to fade Philly bats rather than actually play Feltner. Assad is just short sample size shenanigans.
Zeros: Ryne Nelson, Luke Weaver, Sean Manaea*
* Manaea is nowhere near as bad as this would suggest. A large part of his low True AVG is due to extreme splits versus RHH to start the year. That said, it seems to be a bit of him getting unlucky and as such his median projections are still solid.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Kodai Senga
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Bryson Stott
3B: Max Muncy
SS: Fernando Tatis
OF: Juan Soto
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Michael Wacha
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Nico Hoerner
3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: Seiya Suzuki
DFS Stack Considerations
Padres
Cubs
Pirates
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
This slate isn't as straight forward as ownership would dictate mostly because the pitching options are all suspect. There's an important decision to be made on Draftkings with Fernando Tatis being mis-priced at $2k. The best way to approach this is to pay up for a premium SS, including Xander as direct leverage. Trying to find another min-priced pivot is not recommended. The easiest way to build in small field GPPs is going to be a combo of Michael Wacha and Kodai Senga with one of LAD/PHI as your main stack. Secondary stack considerations are going to be built around Padres (Tatis returns), Cubs (Wrigley wind), and Pirates. (Weaver sucks). Good luck and let's collect some trophies!
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