Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
Update 5:55 PM EST: Brewers dropped significantly in the most recent update. Models are high on Orioles and Mariners as low owned stack options. Just keep in mind the weather concern with Baltimore.
DFS Slate Overview
- As it currently stands, ownership is centered around Angels, Rangers, and Padres with the Royals as the popular spot for value.
- The pitcher ownership is condensing around Castillo, paired with one of Wright or Heaney. Heaney will require more value bats, while Wright allows you to pay up.
- Models are high on both the Rangers and Royals. However, both project to be popular. Thankfully, the Brewers are right behind them at significantly lower ownership. The most important thing to do is to either find leverage at pitcher, or play Brewers bats.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Kyle Wright, Wade Miley, Andrew Heaney
The top three pitchers for True AVG are Kyle Wright, Wade Miley, and Andrew Heaney. Wright and Heaney project for high ownership, and Miley has weather concerns.
Zeros: Tyler Anderson*, Kyle Gibson, Garrett Whitlock
Tyler Anderson has the worst True AVG by far. Thus, of the the three popular stacks the value Royals may be the one you want to consider prioritizing.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Luis Castillo
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Marcus Semien
3B: Hunter Dozier
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Nate Eaton
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Wade Miley (assuming game plays, otherwise Miles Mikolas)
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Jordan Diaz
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Luis Renigfo
OF: Kyle Isbel
DFS Stack Considerations
Rangers
Royals
Brewers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
This slate is pretty straightforward. The general construction is going to be Castillo/Wright with studs from the Angels, Padres, and Rangers, or Royals with Heaney. The easiest way to build in small field GPPs is going to be fading Angels and going with one of Rangers/Royals as your main stack. Secondary stack considerations are going to be built around Brewers, Padres, and Orioles if that game plays. Good luck and let's collect some trophies!
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