Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is sitting on Joe Ryan/Nestor Cortes and the Bluejays with some secondary ownership falling towards the Diamondbacks and Royals.
- The chalk midrange at pitcher is pretty evenly split between Blake Snell, Eric Lauer, and Charlie Morton. However, Jose Berrios projects significantly higher than all of them and is projected for significantly lower ownership.
- Joe Ryan rates as the top pitcher with Cortes and Berrios not far behind. The three of them rate significantly higher than the rest. Additionally, the Giants rate as the top stack. Since both Berrios and the Giants are projected to be low owned it won't be hard to get different tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Mason Miller, Nestor Cortes, Jose Berrios
Two of these heroes, Miller and Berrios, make for fantastic GPP pivots off of the chalk options in their price range.
Zeros: Jake Woodford, Ryne Nelson, Brady Singer
Ryne Nelson and Brady Singer face off against each other in a garbage duel leading to decent ownership on the Royals and Dbacks. However, no one is playing Giants versus Woodford who is the worst pitcher on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Nestor Cortes
1B: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Josh Rojas
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Corbin Carroll
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Jose Berrios
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Nico Hoerner
3B: Patrick Wisdom
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: Blake Sabol (DK), Daulton Varsho
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
In small field starting with the BlueJays and utilizing a handful of other options (SF, ATL, STL, NYM to name a few) as secondary stacks is the easiest way to go at this slate. In large field contests, using TOR as a secondary in lieu of ARI/KC makes the most sense if 5-man stacking the lower owned alternatives. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is going to be Ryan or Cortes paired with one of Snell/Morton/Lauer.Bassitt. However, the models like Jose Berrios quite a bit more. Likewise, you can use Mason Miller as a pivot off of Griffin Canning. With some low owned options with high projections, this makes for a strong GPP slate.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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