Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is sitting on Steven Matz and Patrick Sandoval with the Angels. Secondary ownership is falling towards the Dodgers (DK) and Padres (FD).
- Patrick Sandoval rates terribly in the models and is projected to be heavy chalk. Likewise, Steven Matz is also projected for high ownership, but at least has a middling projection.
- Logan Gilbert and Bryce Elder are the only two pitchers with a median projection of 20 or more so starting with one of them is probably the way to go. The Angels rate as the top stack, but will be the highest owned by far. Considering ownership and projections, fading the chalk pitching and playing Angels with a low-owned SP and low-owned secondary stack in GPPs is recommended.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Bryce Elder, Hunter Brown, Michael Wacha
All three of these heroes are worth GPP consideration due to decent projections with lower ownership than the chalk options.
Zeros: Taijuan Walker, Anthony DeSclafani, Josh Fleming
While Josh Fleming isn't starting for the Rays, he is projected to be the long reliever. As such, the Astros should still get in about 4 innings versus his bottom-tier True AVG.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Steven Matz
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Mookie Betts
3B: Anthony Rendon
SS: Jeremy Pena
OF: Mike Trout
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Logan Gilbert
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Jordan Diaz
3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes
SS: Paul Dejong
OF: Jack Suwinski
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
In small field starting with the Angels and utilizing a handful of other options (OAK, NYM, STL, SEA) as secondary stacks is the easiest way to go at this slate. However, In large field contests using OAK as a main stack in lieu of LAA makes the most sense as they have identical 8+ runs %. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Matz paired with Sandoval in oder to fit LAA bats. However, the models like Logan Gilbert and Bryce Elder quite a bit more than anyone else. Finding leverage spots tonight will be straightforward with how condensed ownership is.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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