Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is sitting on Gerrit Cole and the Twins. Secondary ownership is falling towards the Orioles, Yankees, and Mets.
- Gerrit Cole sits atop the models, however, McLanahan, Mahle, and Cease are all within 2 points of his projection at significantly lower ownership.
- The Mets and Twins rate out as the top two stacks despite their ownership. Playing bats from either team while pivoting off of Gerrit Cole is viable strategy in GPPs tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Joey Lucchesi, Gerrit Cole, Andrew Heaney
Yankees are projected to be popular versus Heaney, however, given his high True AVG this a clear spot to fade or attack in large-field GPPs.
Zeros: Trevor Williams, Zach Greinke, Kyle Gibson
Williams and Greinke are about equally bad, however, the Twins versus Greinke will be twice the ownership of the Mets versus Williams.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Gerrit Cole
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
2B: Jorge Polanco
3B: Jose Miranda
SS: Carlos Correa
OF: Aaron Judge
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Tyler Mahle
1B: Joey Gallo
2B: Zach McKinstry
3B: Jeimer Candelario
SS: Fransisco Lindor
OF: Oswaldo Cabrera
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Twins
Tigers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
In small field starting with the Twins and utilizing a handful of other options (NYM, DET, WAS) as secondary stacks is the easiest way to go at this slate. If you pair Twins with Tigers or Nationals you can likely still play Cole as well. In large field it makes sense to fade Cole as the easy leverage play and target the lower owned stacks. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Cole paired with Lucchesi in order to fit the bats. However, the models like Mahle, McLanahan, and Cease just as much as Cole.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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