Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is sitting on Corbin Burnes and Coors (Diamondbacks and Rockies). Secondary ownership is falling towards the cheap Whitesox and Brewers.
- Nathan Eovaldi sits atop the models, however, fellow popular option Corbin Burnes and Clayton Kershaw rate pretty poorly.
- The Rockies rate out as the top stack by a wide margin despite their ownership. This makes it pretty straightforward that getting different at pitcher is the way to go in GPPs tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Davis, Lance Lynn
All three of the heroes appear to be in tough spots at first glance. However, Eovaldi faces a Yankees team without Judge, Lynn gets a Rays team that does strikeout, and Davis is phenomenal large field leverage.
Zeros: Tommy Henry, Corbin Burnes, Rays Pitchers
Calvin Faucher is expected to be the opener for the Rays with Yonny Chirinos set to act as the long reliever. Regardless of which pitcher is in, both of them are at the bottom of the True AVG barrell.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Nathan Eovaldi
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Alan Trejo
3B: Jake Burger
SS: Willy Adames
OF: Corbin Carroll
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Noah Davis
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Max Muncy
3B: Nolan Arenado
SS: Paul Dejong
OF: Brenton Doyle
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
In small field starting with the Rockies with Eovaldi and utilizing a handful of other options (STL, LAA, TEX) as secondary stacks is the easiest way to go at this slate. In large field the models make decisions easy as they are low on the Diamondbacks, Whitesox, and Brewers. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Eovaldi paired with either Kershaw or Burnes. However, the models once again make decisions easy as they are low on both Kershaw and Burnes.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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