Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is sitting on Blake Snell with Blue Jays and Padres . Secondary ownership is falling towards the Dodgers and Red Sox.
- Jose Berrios sits atop the models at virtually no ownership. Likewise, Luke Weaver also rate well going against one the most popular stacks.
- The Phillies, Dodgers, and Astros rate similarly as the top stacks on the slate and then there's a huge drop off to the next best stack. Neither of these three teams are getting crazy ownership and should a focal point of your builds tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: MacKenzie Gore, Luis Garcia, Jose Berrios
Two of these three heroes, Gore and Berrios, make fantastic pivots off of Blake Snell who is projected to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate.
Zeros: Ross Stripling, Taijuan Walker, Tony Gonsolin
While the Dodgers are getting modest ownership versus Taijuan Walker, people seem to be overlooking Phillies and Astros bats against equally bad pitching.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Blake Snell
1B: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
2B: Oswald Peraza
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Bo Bichette
OF: Fernando Tatis Jr.
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Jose Berrios
1B: Alec Bohm
2B: Mauricio Dubon
3B: Max Muncy
SS: Jeremy Pena
OF: Kyle Schwarber
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
In small field starting with the Phillies with Snell and utilizing a handful of other options (LAD, HOU, TOR) as secondary stacks is the easiest way to go at this slate. In large field the models make decisions easy as there are two clear leverage spots with Berrios over Snell, or Weaver versus Padres. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Blake Snell paired with MacKenzie Gore. Additionally, you'll see Snell paired with Gonsolin as a punt to fit expensive bats, or paired with Luis Garcia and value bats. This makes finding pivots pretty straightforward tonight.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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