Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is spread out today with Gerrit Cole and Zac Gallen on the high end, and the two Millers on the low end. Stack ownership is similarly spread out, but Brewers are the most popular followed by Twins
- Tanner Bibee sits atop the models at virtually no ownership and is a strong pivot off of the other cheaper pitchers tonight.
- The Cardinals, Padres, Twins and Orioles all rate similarly as the top stacks on the slate. Neither of these teams are getting prohibitive ownership and should a focal point of your builds tonight. Of note, the models are low on the Brewers which supports fading the chalk.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Tanner Bibee, Mason Miller, Freddy Peralta
Mason Miller looks like good chalk, while Bibee and Peralta are phenomenal GPP targets at their projected ownership.
Zeros: Anthony DeSclafani, Yusei Kikuchi, Jon Gray
Anthony DeSclafani has the worst True AVG on the entire slate, but he does have some name recognition. This is leading to suppressed ownership on the Astros which we can take advantage of in GPPs.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Mason Miller
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Jorge Polanco
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Willy Adames
OF: Byron Buxton
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Tanner Bibee
1B: Alec Bohm
2B: Tommy Edman
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Jeremy Pena
OF: Austin Hays
DFS Stack Considerations
Cardinals
Padres
Orioles
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
In small field starting with the Twins and Mason Miller while utilizing a handful of other options (STL, SDP, BAL) as secondary stacks is the easiest way to go at this slate. In large field the models make decisions easy as there is a clear leverage spot with Bibee over Bryce Miller, and and easy fade of Brewers. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Cole/Gallen paired with either Miller. Fading this pitching combo and/or Brewers makes it easy to get different tonight.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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