Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Logan Gilbert and Dylan Cease with Brewers and Orioles bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Blue Jays, Rockies, and Mariners
- Logan Gilbert sits atop despite his ownership and is probably good chalk. Clarke Schimdt looks the best pitching option on the slate taking median and ownership into account.
- The Whitesox rate as the top stack on the slate and will have virtually no ownership. The Redsox, Mariners, Orioles, Yankees, and Cubs are all grouped together in the next tier, so focus on the lower ownership in GPPs. Of note, the models are low on the Brewers which supports fading the chalk.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Clarke Schmidt, Jake Irvin, Miles Mikolas
The fact that these three pitchers are the True AVG heroes tonight should tell you everything you need to know about pitching on this slate.
Zeros: Louie Varland, Kyle Freeland, Zach Greinke
Both the Brewers and Orioles are projected to be popular against Freeland and Greinke, however, the Whitesox are going to be low owned against the worst True AVG on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Logan Gilbert
1B: Luke Voit
2B: Ramon Urias
3B: Mike Brosseau
SS: Willy Adames
OF: Adam Frazier
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Clarke Schmidt
1B: Andrew Vaughn
2B: Enmanuel Valdez
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Tim Anderson
OF: Cody Bellinger
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
In small field starting with the Orioles and Logan Gilbert while utilizing a handful of other options (CWS, BOS, SEA) as secondary stacks is the easiest way to go at this slate. In large field the models support fading chalk Brewers, however, the Orioles still rate well despite the ownership. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Dylan Cease paired with Logan Gilbert. You can comfortably fade one or both of them considering how condensed the median projections are overall.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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