Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on high end pitching with Nestor Cortes, Logan Gilbert, and Zach Gallen. Stack ownership is focused on Whitesox, with secondary ownership on Yankees, Giants, and Diamonbacks.
- Zach Gallen, Nestor Cortes, and Logan Gilbert are the top three pitchers in the models. However, while Gallen is the clear number one, the gap between Cortes/Gilbert and lower owned Brown/Peralta is not as wide.
- The Giants rate as the top stack by a lot. After a sizable gap the Mariners, Yankees, and Brewers rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Nestor Cortes, Hunter Brown, Freddy Peralta
Nestor Cortes is projected to be the highest owned pitcher in DFS today. However, we can take advantage of Brown and Peralta as excellent pivots at a fraction of the ownership.
Zeros: Jon Gray, Zach Greinke, Jake Irvin
People have caught on to Greinke being bad as evidenced by the Whitesox being the most popular stack on both sites. However, Jon Gray still has some name recognition which is suppressing ownership on Mariners bats.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Nestor Cortes
1B: LaMonte Wade Jr.
2B: Gleyber Torres
3B: JD Davis
SS: Tim Anderson
OF: Harrison Bader
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Hunter Brown
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Brett Wisely
3B: Max Muncy
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: Christian Yelich
DFS Stack Considerations
Giants
Mariners
Yankees
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Giants and some combo of Cortes/Gilbert/Gallen makes sense in small field. An easy way to get different is to utilize a handful of other options (SEA, NYY, MIL) as secondary stacks and fade CWS. In large field the models support fading the Whitesox. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Nestor Cortes paired with Logan Gilbert or Zach Gallen. However, Brown and Peralta are easy pivots.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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