Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on high end pitching with Shohei Ohtani, George Kirby, and Logan Webb. Clarke Schmidt is the one stand out as a value SP2. Stack ownership is focused on Whitesox, with secondary ownership on Yankees, Giants, and Dodger and Padres. However, overall stack ownership is not as condensed as last night.
- Clarke Schmidt is the only one of the chalk pitchers that rates highly in the models. Low-owned Luzardo and Taillon are tied for the top arms on the slate.
- The Marlins rate as the top stack followed by the Yankees. The Dodgers, Mariners, Braves, and Giants are the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Louie Varland, Jameson Taillon, Jesus Luzardo
Louie Varland boasts the highest True AVG on the slate today. While this isn't necessarily a recommendation to play him, it does give some merit to fading popular Padres bats tonight.
Zeros: Brandon Pfaadt, Andrew Heaney, Jordan Lyles
People have caught on to [insert Royals pitcher] being bad as evidenced by the Whitesox being one of the most popular stacks again. However, Pfaadt and Heaney are even worse in terms of True AVG and little to no ownership is going towards Marlins or Mariners.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Clarke Schmidt (DK), Ohtani (FD)
1B: Andrew Vaughn
2B: Thairo Estrada
3B: Chris Taylor
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Aaron Judge
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Jesus Luzardo
1B: Ty France
2B: Luis Garcia
3B: Patrick Wisdom
SS: Joey Wendle
OF: Bryan De La Cruz
DFS Stack Considerations
Marlins
Yankees
Dodgers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Clarke Schmidt and some combo of Yankees/Dodgers makes sense in small field. Schimdt makes it easy to prioritize the premium bats from each team. An easy way to get different is to utilize a handful of other options (SEA, MIA, ATL) as secondary stacks. In large field the models once again support fading the Whitesox in favor of the Marlins, Braves, or Giants. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is George Kirby paired with Logan Webb or Ohtani with Schmidt. Luzardo, Taillon, and Giolito are all great GPP pivots.
GL and let's bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.