Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused Gerrit Cole and Corbin Burnes with Phillies bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Giants, Rockies, and Rangers.
- Spencer Strider rates significantly higher than either Cole or Burnes but will be lowest owned of the three. MacKenzie Gore is also popping in the models at low ownership.
- The Yankees rate as the top stack in the models followed by the Dodgers, and Rangers. Despite the ownership, the Phillies and Giants still rate well so a full fade isn't necessary.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, MacKenzie Gore, Sonny Gray
Strider and Gray are known DFS commodities, so not much surprise to see them at the top of True AVG. However, MacKenzie Gore in the same tier as them may be a shock. Gore is an excellent GPP option at minimal ownership.
Zeros: Josh Fleming, Austin Gomber, Ryne Nelson
The Phillies versus Gomber will be the most popular stack in DFS tonight, and the Giants against Nelson will be a popular secondary option. However, nobody will be playing the upside of the Yankees versus the worst True AVG pitcher on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Spencer Strider
1B: LaMonte Wade Jr.
2B: Owen Miller
3B: Josh Harrison
SS: Trea Turner
OF: Joc Pederson
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: MacKenzie Gore
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Gleyber Torres
3B: Chris Taylor
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Harrison Bader
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Strider and Phillies makes sense in small field. An easy way to get different is to utilize a handful of other options (NYY, LAD TEX) as secondary stacks, as well as playing the bottom of the order. In large field relegating the Phillies and Giants to secondary stacks makes sense. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Corbin Burnes paired with Gerrit Cole or Spencer Strider. However, MacKenzie Gore is an excellent pivot off of chalk Burnes.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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