Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused Zac Gallen and Dylan Cease with Phillies bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Brewers, Rockies, Dodgers, and Orioles.
- Zac Gallen rates significantly higher than any other pitcher on the slate and is chalk you likely want to eat. Thankfully, low-owned Houser rates well and can balance out the ownership as an SP2.
- The Dodgers rate as the top stack in the models at only the 3rd highest ownership. The Brewers, Whitesox, and Orioles are the next best options. Worth noting that the models are very low on the Phillies.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Adrian Houser, Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease
Adrian Houser looks like a good lower owned option at SP2 tonight, while Zac Gallen appears to be good chalk. Although Cease is also up here, his median projection combined with his ownership scream fade.
Zeros: Zack Greinke, Tyler Wells, Joe Musgrove
Zack Greinke remains at the bottom of True AVG, while he's managed to avoid a true blowup thus far all indications point to continuing to attack him.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Zac Gallen
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Miguel Vargas
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Trea Turner
OF: Jesse Winker
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Adrian Houser
1B: Nelson Cruz
2B: Adam Frazier
3B: Max Muncy
SS: Tim Anderson
OF: Jack Suwinski
DFS Stack Considerations
Dodgers
Brewers
Whitesox
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Gallen and Dodgers makes sense in small field. You can still use popular Brewers and Orioles as secondary stacks or even main stacks if playing Houser. In large field the models support fading the Phillies. In addition to the top stacks, the Whitesox and Rockies also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Zac Gallen paired with Gerrit Cole or Spencer Strider. However, MacKenzie Gore is an excellent pivot off of chalk Burnes.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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