Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused Framber Valdez and Merill Kelley with Reds bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Padres, Diamondbacks, and Rockies.
- Jameson Taillon rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models. He's followed by Hunter Greene and Pablo Lopez. All three options will be low owned and are great GPP plays.
- The Padres rate as the top stack in the models. While they are the projected to be the second highest owned stack, they will still be half the ownership of the Reds. The Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, and A's rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Jameson Taillon, Hunter Greene, Alex Wood
All three of today's Heroes look like phenomenal GPP plays considering their median projection and ownership.
Zeros: Jhony Brito, Connor Seabold, Drew Rucinski
The Reds will be massively popular versus Seabold in Coors. However, both the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays will have a fraction of the ownership versus equally bad pitchers.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Merrill Kelley
1B: Spencer Steer
2B: Jake Cronenworth
3B: Josh Rojas
SS: Matt McLain
OF: Jake Fraley
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Jameson Taillon
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Manny Machado
SS: Xander Bogaerts
OF: Aaron Judge
DFS Stack Considerations
Padres
Diamondbacks
Blue Jays
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Taillon and Padres makes sense in small field. You can still use popular Reds as secondary stack since some of the individual bats rate okay. However, in large field the models support fading the Reds. In addition to the top stacks, the Mariners, Yankees, and Braves also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Framber Valdez paired with Merrill Kelly. Neither Kelly or Valdez rate well in the models, and Taillon/Greene/Lopez all look like superior plays.
GL and let's bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.