Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused Christian Javier with Coors bats (Reds and Rockies). Secondary ownership is falling on Diamondbacks and Mariners.
- Kevin Gausman rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models. He's followed by Luis Castillo and Seth Lugo. All three options will be lower owned and are great GPP plays.
- The Cardinals rate as the top stack in the models and also have low ownership. The Ranger, Diamondbacks, Whitesox, and A's rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Lance Lynn
All three of today's Heroes look like strong GPP plays considering their median projection and ownership.
Zeros: Tampa Bay pitchers, Tommy Henry, Shane Beiber
True AVG is not a belieber, as such the Whitesox are popping in the models at virtually no ownership. Opener or PLR doesn't matter as both pitchers for the Rays are at the bottom of True AVG.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Seth Lugo
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Emmanuel Rivera
SS: Matt McLain
OF: Julio Rodriguez
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Kevin Gausman
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Marcus Semien
3B: Mike Brosseau
SS: Xander Bogaerts
OF: Brenton Doyle
DFS Stack Considerations
Cardinals
Rangers
Diamondbacks
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Lugo and Dbacks makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (STL, TEX, CWS). In large field the models support fading both Javier and Coors. In addition to the top stacks, the Whitesox, A's, Mariners, and Brewers also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Christian Javier paired with Zach Wheeler. However, neither one rates highly in the models, and Gausman/Castillo/Lugo/Lynn all look like superior plays.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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