Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused Spencer Strider with Mariners. Secondary ownership is falling on Guardians, RedSox, Brewers, and Mets.
- Spencer Strider rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models. His median projection is so significantly higher than anyone else on the slate you likely just eat this ownership and get different with bats.
- The Mets rate as the top stack in the models at modest ownership. The Cardinals, Mariners, WhiteSox, and Brewers rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, Nathan Eovaldi, Kodai Senga
Spencer Strider is head and shoulders above the rest of the pitching options today including the other two Heroes. Despite having the 2nd and 3rd highest True AVG, there are other pitchers with similar median projections for less salary.
Zeros: Josh Fleming, JP France, Peyton Battenfield
All three of these pitchers are bad and no one is attacking them. Consequently, the Mets and Whitesox stand out in particular.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Spencer Strider
1B: Josh Bell
2B: Andres Gimenez
3B: Owen Miller
SS: Amed Rosario
OF: Julio Rodriguez
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Nathan Eovaldi
1B: Mark Vientos
2B: Chris Morel
3B: Nolan Gorman
SS: Fransisco Lindor
OF: Mark Canha
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Cardinals
Mariners
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Strider and Mets makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (STL, CWS, SEA, MIL). In large field you likely want to focus on the lowest owned stacks that rate well in the Cardinals, WhiteSox, Yankees, and Blue Jays. Additionally, the Brewers, Guardians, and RedSox also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Strider paired with another spend up (Cole/Senga/Burnes). However, Eovaldi is the clear pivot on the high end. Outside of Strider the other pitcher options all rate similarly so save some salary and focus on lower ownership.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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