Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused Andrew Heaney with Rangers bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Astros, and Dodgers.
- Kevin Gausman rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models. He will be popular but for good reason. James Kaprielian, Clayton Kershaw, and Lance Lynn all look like strong GPP plays.
- The Mariners rate as the top stack in the models by a wide margin. The Brewers, Pirates, Rangers, and Rockies rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Kevin Gausman, James Kaprielian, Alex Wood
Kevin Gausman looks like good chalk as he sits atop True AVG. Seeing an A's pitcher in the top 3 is certainly surprising, but it gives additional merit to fading Astros today.
Zeros: Jared Shuster, Andrew Heaney, Jalen Beeks
True AVG supports fading popular Andrew Heaney, while the Brewers and Mariners will have lower ownership versus the other two Zeroes.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Andrew Heaney
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Marcus Semien
3B: Owen Miller
SS: Ezequiel Duran
OF: Kyle Tucker
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
1B: Ty France
2B: Taylor Walls
3B: Euginio Suarez
SS: JP Crawford
OF: Randal Grichuk
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Gausman and Rangers makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (SEA, MIL, PIT). In large field the models support fading the Astros and Heaney, at that point you can do what you want. In addition to the top stacks, the Rockies, and Rays also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Heaney paired with either Valdez or Gausman. Kershaw is the pivot off of Valdez/Gausman and Lynn is the pivot off of Heaney.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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