Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Luis Castillo with Marlins bats in Coors. Secondary ownership is falling on Mariners, Rockies, RedSox, and Dodgers.
- Edward Cabrera rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models. He will low owned and makes an excellent GPP. Luis Castillo will be chalk but rates decently as well and should be utilized in cash games and small field contests. Bailey Ober and Jamie Barria round out the top projected pitchers.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models closely followed by the Mariners. The Twins, Royals, and Astros rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Edward Cabrera, Charlie Morton, Bailey Ober
Technically, John Brebbia has the highest True AVG today, but is only going to serve as the Giants opener and thus shouldn't be considered for DFS. Meanwhile, Cabrera looks like a strong GPP play at low ownership due to playing in Coors.
Zeros: Gavin Stone, Michael Lorenzen, Kyle Muller
The Mariners will be popular tonight against Kyle Muller and the atrocious A's bullpen, however, the Braves and Royals are getting much lower ownership against equally bad pitching.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Luis Castillo
1B: Ty France
2B: Zach McKinstry
3B: Eugenio Suarez
SS: Jon Berti
OF: Teoscar Hernandez
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Edward Cabrera
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Michael Massey
3B: Ryan McMahon
SS: Jose Caballero
OF: Michael A. Taylor
DFS Stack Considerations
Braves
Mariners
Twins
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Cabrera and Mariners makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (ATL, MIN, KC). In large field the models support fading Coors and getting different with bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Royals and Astros also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Castillo/Javier. Edward Cabrera, Bailey Ober, and Jaime Barrera are all strong GPP plays.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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