Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Joe Ryan with Arizona bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Pirates, Astros, Rangers, and Guardians.
- Joe Ryan rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models, and Zac Gallen is right behind him. Given that the models are high on the expensive pitching you will likely need to find value with bats.
- The Pirates rate as the top stack in the models. The Twins, Pirates, and Astros rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen, Joe Ryan
Ryan and Gallen rate as the top 2 pitchers in the models while Ranger Suarez looks like a strong value at SP2.
Zeros: Cal Quantrill, Anthony DeSclafani, Martin Perez
Cal Quantrill is projected to be popular which makes WhiteSox bats the easy leverage on this slate. The Twins will also be low-owned which makes them a strong GPP play as well.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Joe Ryan
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Emmanuel Rivera
SS: Rodolfo Castro
OF: Connor Joe
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Ranger Suarez
1B: Andrew Vaughn
2B: Marcus Semien
3B: Yoan Moncada
SS: Amed Rosario
OF: Michael A. Taylor
DFS Stack Considerations
Pirates
WhiteSox
Twins
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Ryan and Pirates makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (CWS and MIN). In large field the models support fading Diamondbacks and even Rangers and Guardians to an extent. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Joe Ryan with Zac Gallen. Despite their ownership, they still rate as the top pitchers. However, Kopech and Suarez are viable options in GPPs if you want to get different.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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