Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Kodai Senga with Padres. Secondary ownership is falling on Mariners, Marlins, and RedSox.
- Bryce Miller rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models. Miller will be popular but James Paxton has a median projection of just one point less with a quarter of the ownership.
- The Mariners rate as the top stack in the models despite their ownership. The Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Mets, and Cubs rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Karl Kauffmann, James Paxton, Kodai Senga
Karl Kauffmann has only had one start so there may be some sample size shenanigans here, however, he is also dirt cheap. Similarly, Paxton and Senga also are top 3 True AVG on the slate but that is more of a reflection on tonight's options.
Zeros: Zach Greinke, Tyler Wells, Marcus Stroman
The only thing that might save Greinke is the matchup versus the hapless Detroit Tigers. However, both NY teams will be unowned versus the next two worst True AVG pitchers on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Bryce Miller
1B: Jake Cronenworth
2B: Rougned Odor
3B: Zach McKinstry
SS: JP Crawford
OF: Teoscar Hernandez
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: James Paxton
1B: Pete Alonso
2B:Christopher Morel
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Jose Caballero
OF: Mookie Betts
DFS Stack Considerations
Mariners
Braves
Dodgers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Miller and Mariners makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (ATL, LAD, NYM, CHC and NYY). In large field the models support fading Senga and even stacking against him with Cubs bats. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Bryce Miller with Kodai Senga. Cortes, Stroman, and Alcantara will also carry some ownership which makes Paxton a phenomenal GPP play tonight.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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