Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Logan Gilbert with Mariners. Secondary ownership is falling on Orioles, Phillies, and Mets
- Logan Gilbert rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models but will be most popular pitcher on the slate by a wide margin. Carrasco has a median projection right below Gilbert by less than a point and will have less than half the ownership.
- The Phillies rate as the top stack in the models despite their ownership. The Braves, Yankees, Mets and Mariners rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Carlos Carrasco, JP Sears, Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert will be massive chalk but it's worth noting that despite being a True AVG hero today, it's not an elite mark by any means. JP Sears on the other side of the SEA/OAK game is a spicy GPP play tonight.
Zeros: Dylan Dodd, Aaron Nola, Kyle Hendricks
The field recognizes that Dodd and Hendricks aren't good and the Phillies and Mets will carry ownership respectively. However, the Braves will go low owned as Nola still carries name recognition despite having the 2nd worst True AVG on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Logan Gilbert
1B: Sam Haggerty
2B: Adam Frazier
3B: Alec Bohm
SS: Trea Turner
OF: Julio Rodriguez
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: JP Sears
1B: Pete Alonso
2B:Jose Caballero
3B: Oswaldo Cabrera
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Ian Happ
DFS Stack Considerations
Phillies
Braves
Yankees
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Gilbert and Phillies makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (NYY, ATL, NYM). In large field the models support fading Orioles bats and Aaron Nola. Additionally, the Braves and Yankees rate similar to the Mariners at a fraction of the ownership. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Logan Gilbert with Aaron Nola. If people are trying to fit in pricier bats they will likely drop from Nola to Carrasco.
GL and let's bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.