Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Kevin Gausman with Mets bats in Coors. Secondary ownership is falling on Astros and Nationals
- Reid Detmers rates as the top pitcher tonight in the models and will be lower owned. Gausman, Keller, and Brown rate as the next best pitching options
- The Phillies rate as the top stack in the models at incredibly low ownership after being the chalk last night. The Orioles, Royals, Yankees and Braves rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Reid Detmers, James Kaprielian, Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman looks like good chalk tonight while Detmers makes an excellent low-owned SP2. On FD you can legitimately consider Detmers over Gausman straight up. Oakland pitching is not for the faint of heart, but does provide leverage in large field GPPs.
Zeros: Jared Shuster, Jordan Lyles, Brandon Pfaadt
Shuster is far and away the worst pitcher on the slate but the Phillies will be one of the lowest owned stacks tonight; easy decision. Likewise, both the Nationals and RedSox will be lower owned against the next worse True AVG pitchers on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Kevin Gausman
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Jeff McNeil
3B: Brett Baty
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Corey Dickerson
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Reid Detmers
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Rougned Odor
3B: Alec Bohm
SS: Jorge Mateo
OF: Kyle Schwarber
DFS Stack Considerations
Phillies
Orioles
Royals
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Gausman and Phillies makes sense in small field. If you eat Mets chalks you can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (PHI, BAL, KC). In large field the models support fading Mets bats and Freddy Peralta. In addition to the top stacks, the Yankees, Braves, Cardinals, and Padres also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Kevin Gausman with Freddy Peralta. Detmers rates as the best pivot off of Peralta, however, there are about 8 other pivots as well. If you decide to fade Gausman you should focus on Mitch Keller.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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