Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Zac Gallen with Braves. Secondary ownership is falling on Brewers, Rays, and Dbacks (DK), and Angels, Dodgers, WhiteSox (FD).
- Joe Ryan rates as the top pitcher in the models and is an excellent pivot off of Gallen. However, Gallen is the next highest rated pitcher so he's not bad chalk. Logan Gilbert and Kodai Senga round out the top options.
- The Orioles rate as the top stack in the models by a pretty wide margin. The Dodgers, [gap], Nationals, Cardinals and Cubs rate as the next best options, however, there are over 10 additional teams with an 8+ over 25%.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Joe Ryan, Kodai Senga, Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks versus the Rays may seem scary, however, Stroman just had the day of his life against them yesterday and has True AVG worse than Hendricks. Similarly, Ryan and Senga also have touch matchups but are also higher upside arms.
Zeros: Cal Quantrill, Ben Lively, Tony Gonsolin
Gonsolin and Orioles versus Quantrill are the two spoilers for True AVG. Gonsolin has been bad going back to last year but seems to Houdini his way out of disaster. Meanwhile, the Orioles get another great matchup versus Quantrill but have have disappointed for four straight slates. The RedSox versus Lively might be safest spot to take advantage of here.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Zac Gallen
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Emmanuel Rivera
SS: Royce Lewis
OF: Brendan Donovan
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Joe Ryan
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Romy Gonzalez
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Jorge Mateo
OF: Seth Brown
DFS Stack Considerations
Orioles
Dodgers
Nationals
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Ryan and Braves makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (BAL, CHC, WAS). In large field you can target a multitude of lower owned stacks including both Sox, A's, Mariners, and Blue Jays. There's no reason to eat chalk Braves with so many options that rate similarly or better. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Zac Gallen with Nestor Cortes. However, Ryan is a direct pivot to Gallen and there are at least 10 other pitchers that rate better than Cortes.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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