Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Framber Valdez with Phillies bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Royals, Rays, and Rockies However, it's worth noting that ownership is very spread out tonight
- Tyler Glasnow rates as the top pitcher in the models and will be low-owned. Charlie Morton, Bailey Ober, and Luis Castillo have the next highest projections. None of the popular pitchers tonight rate as elite options
- The Phillies rate as the top stack in the models. Although they'll be popular, you can play them and fade the chalk pitching based on the models. The Padres, Cardinals, Twins and Rays rate as the next best options but there are a bevy of viable options tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Charlie Morton
Tyler Glasnow has genuine Ace upside and is priced down in his second game back, however there are weather concerns. Morton is similarly priced to Glasnow and can be used instead as a safer option. Kershaw will be popular, but looks like good chalk.
Zeros: Roansy Contreras, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Lyles
Based on current ownership, the field isn't attacking any of these zeros and this is a potential huge advantage in GPPs tonight. Cardinals, Padres, and Rockies will all have lower ownership.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Clayton Kershaw
1B: Brendan Donovan
2B: Jake Cronenworth
3B: Royce Lewis
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Kyle Schwarber
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Tyler Glasnow
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Rougned Odor
3B: Eugenio Suarez
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: Brandon Marsh
DFS Stack Considerations
Phillies
Cardinals
Padres
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Kershaw and Phillies makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (STL, SDP, MIN). In large field you can consider fading all of the popular pitching options. In addition to the top stacks, the Royals, Rays, WhiteSox, Mets, Dodgers, and Rockies also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Framber Valdez with one of Kershaw/Wheeler/Castillo. However, none of those options stand out above some other pitchers on the slate at lower ownership.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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