Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Nola with Phillies bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Pirates and Padres.
- Braxton Garret rates as the top pitcher in the models but will be popular. Kyle Hendricks projects within a single point of Garrett for less money and less ownership. Additionally, Hendricks will be leverage against chalk Padres.
- The Cardinals rate as the top stack in the models. The Phillies, Brewers, and Astros rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: KC Pitchers, Kyle Hendricks, Blake Snell
It's worth noting that while these three heroes sit atop True AVG tonight, none of them have a standout value. They are simply just better than the rest of the available options. At low ownership they're worth a flier, as chalk you can fade.
Zeros: Martin Perez, Alek Manoah, Aaron Nola
A couple of popular names find themselves at the bottom of True AVG today. Aaron Nola has the third worst True AVG on the slate but is currently projected to be the highest owned pitcher. This makes it an easy decision to fade Nola in GPPs.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Aaron Nola
1B: Connor Joe
2B: Tommy Edman
3B: Kevin Newman
SS: Trea Turner
OF: Kyle Schwarber
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Kyle Hendricks
1B: Spencer Torkelson
2B: Bryson Stott
3B: Nolan Arenado
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: Blake Perkins
DFS Stack Considerations
Cardinal
Phillies
Brewers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Garrett and Phillies makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (STL, MIL, HOU). In large field the models support fading both Aaron Nola and Blake Snell. By fading heavy pitcher chalk you can play more popular bats that rate well. As far as pitching, the main combos people will use are Nola+Snell, Nola+Garrett/Oviedo, or Nola+Abbott. However, only Garrett rates well of that group and Hendricks is a great pivot off of Oviedo.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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