Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of James Paxton with Rays bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Red Sox, Angels, Royals, and Phillies.
- Jesus Luzardo rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will be high owned. James Paxton, Bryce Miller and Logan Webb rate as the best of the rest. Factoring in ownership and projection, Bryce Miller is a strong GPP play tonight.
- The Phillies rate as the top stack in the models and are a solid pivot off of Rays at slightly less ownership. The Rangers and Giants rate as the next best options. The Red Sox, Royals, and A's are also viable.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: James Paxton, Jesus Luzardo, Logan Webb
James Paxton is going to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate but for good reason. Similarly, Luzardo and Webb will also be popular. Given that the top True AVG aligns with top ownership you'll likely need to get different with bats tonight.
Zeros: Tommy Henry, Matt Strahm, Zack Greinke
Tommy Henry finds himself on the zeroes list every start and tonight faces a Phillies team with definite upside. However, on the other side the Diamondbacks get a good matchup versus Strahm, although this is allegedly a bullpen game. KC is the popular value stack but the Reds are in an arguably better spot on the opposite side.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: James Paxton
1B: Wilmer Flores
2B: Michael Massey
3B: Isaac Paredes
SS: Elly De La Cruz
OF: Josh Lowe
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Bryce Miller
1B: Alec Bohm
2B: Jace Peterson
3B: Edmundo Sosa
SS: Ezequiel Duran
OF: Austin Slater
DFS Stack Considerations
Phillies
Rangers
Giants
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Luzardo and Phillies makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (TEX, SF, OAK). In large field the models support fading Zach Eflin and Rays bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Red Sox, Royals, and A's are all viable with the Reds just missing the cut. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Paxton paired with Luzardo. Granted, they both have strong projections and True AVG so it may be worth eating the chalk. However, if you need a low owned GPP option Bryce Miller is the model's choice.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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