Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Max Scherzer with Dodgers bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Reds. Worth noting that on a 14-game slate stack ownership will be spread out.
- Max Scherzer rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will be high owned. Kutter Crawford and Zach Davies rate as the best of the rest. Depending on your risk tolerance, paying down at both pitcher spots is viable based on the models.
- The Mets rate as the top stack in the models and will be unowned. If somehow the Cubs/Pirates game doesn't get PPD'd both sides look good. The Dodgers, White Sox, Red Sox and Twins rate as the next best options. However, there are an additional 8-9 teams also viable tonight due to the sheer number of games.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Max Scherzer, Hunter Brown, Zach Davies
Max Scherzer has the top True AVG, the top projection, and the top expected ownership. Hunter Brown would be the pivot off of Max on the high end, and Davies makes a strong SP2 in GPPs.
Zeros: Luis Severino, Chase Anderson, Jordan Lyles
Jameson Taillon would be on this list, but the Cubs/Pirates game has serious weather risk. Aside from that, the Mets, Red Sox, and Reds get the best True AVG matchups tonight. The Mets will be the lowest owned in that group, but ownership overall is diluted on such a large slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement.
SP: Max Scherzer
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Christian Arroyo
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Elly De La Cruz
OF: Mauricio Dubon
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Zach Davies
1B: Yandy Diaz
2B: Mookie Betts
3B: Isaac Paredes
SS: Willy Adames
OF: Luis Robert Jr.
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Dodgers
White Sox
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Scherzer and Mets makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (CWS, MIN, BAL). In large field the models support fading Pablo Lopez and Corbin Burnes as well as Angels/Jays bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Red Sox, Reds, Rays, Astros, Padres, Cardinals and Rangers are all viable with the Reds just missing the cut. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Max paired with Pablo Lopez. Max looks like good chalk, however, Pablo Lopez can be avoided in GPPs. Paying down at SP2 to Kutter Crawford or Zach Davies makes sense tonight.
GL and let's bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.