Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Clayton Kershaw with Red Sox bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Rays, Blue Jays, and Reds. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow,
- Clayton Kershaw rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will be high owned. Luis Castillo is another popular pitcher that rates well. Detmers, Lynch, Bradish, and Whitlock rate as the best of the rest.
- The Astros rate as the top stack in the models and will be under-owned. The Red Sox rate highly as well, but will be chalk. The Padres, Mets, Royals, A's, Pirates, Dodgers, and Yankees rate as the next best options. However, there are an additional 5-6 teams that are viable in GPPs due to the slate size.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Clayton Kershaw, Daniel Lynch, Reid Detmers
Kershaw is in the twilight of his career but is still a HOF pitcher at home in a good matchup, as such he'll be popular. Lynch and Detmers, however, will be low owned and both make solid SP2 options in GPPs.
Zeros: Austin Gomber, Luis Medina, Josiah Gray
Boston and Tampa Bay will be the two highest owned stacks tonight versus Gomber and Medina respectively. Houston is coming in at half the ownership of those two teams and are a strong pivot option.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Clayton Kershaw
1B: Justin Turner
2B: Christian Arroyo
3B: Isaac Paredes
SS: Gunnar Henderson
OF: Rob Refsnyder
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Daniel Lynch
1B: Mike Ford
2B: Jace Peterson
3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes
SS: Pablo Reyes
OF: Corey Julks
DFS Stack Considerations
Astros
Red Sox
Padres
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Kershaw and Astros makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (SDP, NYM, and OAK). In large field the models support fading Tyler Glasnow and Jays/Reds. In addition to the top stacks, the Padres, Mets, A's, Pirates, Yankees, Mariners and Cubs are all viable low owned options. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Kershaw paired with Tyler Glasnow or Luis Castillo. Kershaw and Castillo look like good chalk, however, GLasnow can be avoided in GPPs. Paying down at SP2 to Detmers/Lynch/Whitlock makes sense tonight.
GL and let's bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.