Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Shohei Ohtani with Dodgers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Guardians, Rockies, and Brewers. However, due to the size of the slate stack ownership is fairly spread out aside from Dodgers. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Gausman, Woo, Wells and Peterson.
- Taj Bradley rates as the top pitcher in the models and has no ownership. Bradley makes an awesome late night hammer in GPPs. Woo, Blackburn, Gausman, and Ohtani rate as the best of the rest.
- The Reds rate as the top stack in the models and will also be unowned. The Tigers, Mariners, Mets, and Royals rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ over 25% is viable in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Taj Bradley, Michael Kopech, Bryan Woo
Taj Bradley has tremendous upside at low ownership and Woo seems like good chalk. Pairing them together is likely a strong move in GPPs tonight. Meanwhile, Kopech looks like a good pivot off of the chalkier Wells in the midrange.
Zeros: Martin Perez, Bryce Elder, Sandy Alcantara
Martin Perez is awful and the Tigers are dirt cheap making them an excellent secondary stack option. Additionally, no one will be attacking Elder or Alcantara tonight which makes BOS and MIN strong GPP targets as well.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Bryan Woo
1B: Josh Bell
2B: Luis Urias
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Mookie Betts (SS eligible on DK)
OF: JD Martinez
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Taj Bradley
1B: Mike Ford
2B: Matt McLain
3B: Nicky Lopez
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Jake Fraley
DFS Stack Considerations
Reds
Tigers
Mariners
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Woo and Reds makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (DET, SEA, and NYM). In large field the models support fading Tyler Wells and David Peterson, as well as lowering exposure to Dodgers. In addition to the top stacks, the Met and Royals also look good. However, there are at least 10 other teams that are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Bryan Woo paired with Gausman or Ohtani. You may also see Peterson instead of Woo but the general high/low pairing will be popular.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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