Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Max Scherzer with Dodgers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Astros and Mets. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Bassitt, Sheehan, France and Hendricks.
- Max Scherzer rates as the top pitcher in the models and projects for twice as many fantasy points as the next highest option. Probably best to just eat the chalk with Max. Technically Bassitt and Hendricks rate as the best of the rest, but the projections of everyone outside of Max are low enough that you should not play the chalk SP2s.
- The Mets rate as the top stack in the models.The Dodgers are right behind NYM, with the Rockies, Cardinals, Astros, and Cubs as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, JP France
Bassitt and France make this list tonight sort of by default. Their True AVG isn't particularly strong, it's just better than the other options. Max, however, is legitimately strong chalk tonight.
Zeros: Emmet Sheehan, Chase Anderson, Adrian Houser
Dodgers in Coors versus a Rockies pitcher with poor True AVG will once again be the chalk. Even the Mets are projected to be decently owned. However, the move in GPPs looks like the Rockies. Despite having the best True AVG matchup on the slate, they currently project to only be the 7th highest owned stack.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Max Scherzer
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Mookie Betts
3B: Alex Bregman
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Mike Tauchman
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: JP France
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Nico Hoerner
3B: Ryan McMahon
SS: Jeremy Pena
OF: Nolan Jones
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Dodgers
Rockies
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Max and Mets makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (COL, STL, and CHC). In large field the models support fading Bassitt and Sheehan. In addition to the top stacks, the Cardinals, Astros and Cubs also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Max paired with one of Bassitt/Sheehan. General roster construction is going to focus on Max with Dodgers and cheap Astros
GL and let's bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.