Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Shane McClanahan with Dodgers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Tigers, White Sox and Yankees. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Freddy Peralta, Pablo Lopez, and Osvaldo Bido.
- Osvaldo Bido rates as the top pitcher in the models and is the strongest SP2 option on the slate. Bido can also be considered on single pitcher sites like FD as well. Paxton, Banks, Lopez, and Canning rate as the best of the rest.
- The Marlins rate as the top stack in the models and will have very little ownership.The Rangers, Giants, and Cardinals, rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Osvaldo Bido, Pablo Lopez, Tanner Banks
Bido and Lopez will both be popular tonight, but look like good chalk. Tanner Banks would be an interesting punt option in GPPs, however, he is listed as the opener and will likely only go 2 innings.
Zeros: Ronel Blanco, Michael Soroka, Carlos Carrasco
Not only is Blanco bad, but the bullpen behind him isn't great either. This makes the low-owned Rangers an enticing option. Similarly, the Marlins and Giants will be low-owned despite matchups with 2 of the worst True AVG arms on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Osvaldo Bido
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Andy Ibanez
3B: Josh Donaldson
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Mookie Betts
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: James Paxton
1B: LaMonte Wade Jr.
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Carlos Correa
OF: Jack Suwinski
DFS Stack Considerations
Marlins
Rangers
Giants
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Bido and Marlins makes sense in small field. The Braves are also a viable pivot off of Dodgers. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (TEX, SFG, and STL). In large field the models support fading McClanahan and Peralta, as well as Dodgers. In addition to the top stacks, the Cardinals, Tigers, Pirates, Braves, Twins, Mariners and Yankees also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is McClanahan paired with one of Bido/Peralta/Lopez. General roster construction is going to focus on McClanahan with Dodgers and cheap TIgers/Yankees/White Sox
GL and let's bake some bread!
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