Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Blake Snel with Twins bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Padres, Braves and Yankees. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Joe Ryan, Logan Webb, and Bryan Woo.
- Blake Snell rates as the top pitcher in the models but will have incredibly high ownership. Despite the ownership, Snell projects significantly higher than everyone else and is egregiously underpriced on DK. Bryan Woo and Tyler Wells rate as the best of the rest when factoring in salary.
- The Twins rate as the top stack in the models but will also be highest owned stack on the slate. However, like Snell they rate higher than anyone else and are a phenomenal value play due to being so cheap. The Padres, Pirates, Braves and Dodgers rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Bryan Woo, Blake Snell, Mitch Keller
Bryan Woo is an interesting SP2 option tonight. He has the highest True AVG, 2nd highest projection and is dirt cheap. However, with underpriced Snell and cheap Twins many people are going to force in a higher priced pitcher like Logan Webb or Joe Ryan. That's a decision we can take advantage of in GPPs. Mitch Keller is likely the Snell pivot if you choose to go that route.
Zeros: Austin Cox, Jaime Barria, Michael Grove
The Twins and Padres will be the chalk combination versus the two worst True AVG arms on the slate. However, in an equally good matchup versus Grove, and at a fraction of the ownership, the Pirates look like a great pivot off of Twins in GPPs.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Blake Snell
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Gleyber Torres
3B: Josh Donaldson
SS: Gunnar Henderson
OF: Byron Buxton
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Bryan Woo
1B: Mike Ford
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Jared Triolo
SS: Nick Gonzales
OF: Aaron Hicks
DFS Stack Considerations
Twins
Padres
Pirates
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Snell and Twins makes sense in small field. However, the Pirates are also a viable pivot off of Twins. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (LAD, BAL, and CLE). In large field the models support fading Joes Ryan and Logan Webb in favor of Woo. In addition to the top stacks, the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, and Guardians also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Snell paired with one of Ryan/Webb. General roster construction is going to focus on Snell with cheap Twins and premium bats from SDP/ATL/NYY.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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