Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Tanner Bibee with Rangers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Guardians and Mariners. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Kyle Bradish and George Kirby.
- George Kirby rates as the top pitcher in the models. However, it's worth noting no pitcher projects for more than 18 DK points which makes fading the chalk easier. After Kirby, Bradish and Bibee rate as the best of the rest.
- The Dodgers rate as the top stack in the models and will be low owned. The Mariners, Orioles, Diamondbacks and Pirates rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Tanner Bibee, Kutter Crawford, Ryne Nelson
Tanner Bibee sits atop True AVG and is probably the right choice in cash games. Kutter Crawford presents an intriguing leverage option versus the massively popular Rangers. Likewise, Nelson is another interesting SP2 option but both are best suited for large field GPPs.
Zeros: Julio Urias, Ronel Blanco, Carlos Carrasco
The Mariners will be popular against Ronel Blanco, however, Urias and Carrasco can be targeted with low owned Pirates and Dbacks.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Tanner Bibee
1B: Josh Bell
2B: Andres Gimenez
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: JP Crawford
OF: Corbin Carroll
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: George Kirby
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Nick Gonzales
3B: Josh Donaldson
SS: Geraldo Perdomo
OF: Aaron Hicks
DFS Stack Considerations
Dodgers
Mariners
Orioles
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Kirby and Mariners makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (LAD, BAL, and ARI). In large field the models support fading Tanner Bibee and Rangers considering their projected ownership versus projection . In addition to the top stacks, the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Guardians also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Bibee paired with Bradish. However, it may be worth fading Bibee and finding the salary to go up to George Kirby
GL and let's bake some bread!
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