Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Corbin Burnes with Red Sox bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Rangers and is widely spread out after that. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Zac Gallen, Luis Castillo, and Andrew Abbott.
- Dylan Cease rates as the top pitcher in the models, but has only the 7th highest ownesrhip projection. Ober and Taillon rate as the best of the rest. However, its worth noting that besides Cease, not a single pitcher projects for over 16 DK points so focus on cheap/low-owned options.
- The Mariners rate as the top stack in the models and will be low owned. The Astros, Diamondbacks, Red, Dodgers, White Sox, Giants and Rangers rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Ross Stripling, Dylan Cease, Tony Gonsolin
Stripling sits atop True AVG but it's unclear what his pitch count will be as he has gone from 90 to 24 in the past 2 months. Tony Gonsolin has seen a complete 180 going from habitual zero to hero, and if Ohtani sits this is a great matchup. Dylan Cease seems like the clear play with high True AVG and the highest median projection at low ownership.
Zeros: Luis Castillo, Trevor Williams, Griffin Canning
Despite the perception that he is Castillo is good, his True AVG is not. However, this will keep the Astros low owned and we can take advantage of that in GPPs. Likewise, the Dodgers will also be low-owned in a good matchup. Williams sucks, but the Rangers will be popular.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Dylan Cease
1B: Justin Turner
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Evan Longoria
SS: Corey Seager
OF: Austin Slater
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Jameson Taillon
1B: David Fry
2B: Matt McLain
3B: Josh Donaldson
SS: JP Crawford
OF: Jake Fraley
DFS Stack Considerations
Mariners
Astros
Diamondbacks
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Cease and Rangers makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (SEA, HOU, and ARI). In large field the models support fading basically every popular pitcher and Red Sox considering their projected ownership versus projection. In addition to the top stacks, the Reds, Dodgers, White Sox, Giants and Rangers also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Gallen paired with Burnes. However, neither one rates particularly well and there are plentiful pivots. The combination of Burnes or Gallen with BOS/TEX should be avoided in GPPs.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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