Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Logan Gilbert with Tigers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Giants and Red Sox. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Logan Webb, Sonny Gray, and MacKenzie Gore.
- Jesus Luzardo rates as the top pitcher in the models, but has only the 5th highest ownership projection. Brandon Williamson and Logan Webb rate as the best of the rest. However, its worth noting that besides Luzardo, not a single pitcher projects for over 15 DK points so focus on cheap/low-owned options.
- The Angels rate as the top stack in the models and have modest ownership. The Yankees, Rangers, Cubs, Nationals, Rays, and Orioles rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Paul Blackburn, Jesus Luzardo, MacKenzie Gore
The Heroes listed should tell you all you need to know about pitching on tonight's slate. Granted, Luzardo is legit good and Gore has had flashes this season. Blackburn in an interesting large field GPP option at SP2, but the better move may just be fading Red Sox.
Zeros: Shane McClanahan, Griffin Canning, Dane Dunning
The Yankees will be moderately owned versus Canning, however, nobody is playing either side of the Rangers/Rays game despite both pitchers at the bottom of True AVG.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Logan Webb
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Nick Maton
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Zach Neto
OF: Giancarlo Stanton
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Jesus Luzardo
1B: Trey Mancini
2B: Nicky Lopez
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Yu Chang
OF: Jose Siri
DFS Stack Considerations
Angels
Yankees
Rangers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Luzardo and Angels makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (TEX, WAS, and TB). In large field the models support fading basically every popular pitcher and Red Sox considering their projected ownership versus projection. In addition to the top stacks, the Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Dodgers also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Gilbert paired with one of Gray/Webb. However, none of them rates particularly well and there are plentiful pivots. Additionally, paying up at both pitcher spots is going to lead to similar lineup construction with chalk value bats needed to fit them.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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