Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of expensive pitchers (Valdez/Ohtani) with Giants bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Reds, Dodger, Mets and DBacks. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Clarke Schmidt, Lance Lynn, and Joe Ryan.
- Ohtani rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will be extremely popular. Framber Valdez and Joe Ryan rate as the best of the rest. The models agree that paying up at both pitcher spots is likely optimal, but the move might be to separate Ohtani/Valdez and pair one of them with Ryan.
- The Guardians rate as the top stack in the models, and will be unowned. The Angels, Yankees, Rangers and Giants rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Shohei Ohtani, Kutter Crawford, Lance Lynn
Shohei Ohtani will be one of the most popular pitchers tonight but for good reason. Ohtani sits atop True AVG and also has the highest median projection. Lynn will also be a semi-popular SP2 option, however, Kutter Crawford at low-ownership and a dirt cheap price makes sense if not paying up at both spots.
Zeros: Bryce Miller, Michael Soroka, Alec Marsh
Toronto is projected to be virtually unowned versus Miller and the worst True AVG on the slate. Likewise, no one is playing Milwaukee either. The Yankees will be a semi-popular value stack and get a good matchup. However, they are just a bad baseball team right now and that has been true regardless of matchup.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Shohei Ohtani or Framber Valdez
1B: LaMonte Wade Jr.
2B: Oswaldo Peraza
3B: Spencer Steer
SS: Zach Neto
OF: Mike Yastrzemski
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Joe Ryan
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Gleyber Torres
3B: Mike Moustakas
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Jack Suwinski
DFS Stack Considerations
Guardians
Angels
Yankees
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Ryan and Giants makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (LAA, NYY, CLE). In large field the models support fading Lance Lynn, Clarke Schmidt and the Mets. Additionally, you can lower exposure to Reds and Dodgers considering their projected ownership versus projection. In addition to the top stacks, the Rangers, Giants and DBacks also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Valdez paired with Ohtani. However, swapping one of them for Joe Ryan or punting SP2 with Kutter Crawford are both viable alternatives.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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