Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Framber Valdez with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Yankees, Cubs, and Giants. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Spencer Strider, Carlos Rodon, and Lance Lynn.
- Spencer Strider rates as the top pitcher in the models, and is the only arm that projects for over 20 DK points. However, he's also prohibitively expensive. Marcus Stroman and Framber Valdez rate as the best of the rest, but their projection relative to salary isn't great.
- The Astros rate as the top stack in the models, and will have low enough ownership that you can pair them with chalk pitching. The Braves are the only other team with an 8+ over 25%, the Giants and Rangers are the next closest.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, Hogan Harris, Framber Valdez
Spencer Strider has the highest True AVG and the highest projection but will be massively popular. Valdez is also extreme chalk and paying up for either him or Strider forces a pretty specific roster construction. Hogan Harris is not for the feint of heart but is an interesting GPP punt that allows you to fit premium bats.
Zeros: Carlos Rodon, Brayan Bello, Alex Wood
Carlos Rodon looks like a clear fade on Draftkings given his True AVG, price and ownership. Brayan Bello is not good, but the field knows this and Braves will be the highest owned stack. Therefore, the GPP play here might be low owned cheap A's versus Alex Wood.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Framber Valdez
1B:Wilmer Flores
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: JD Davis
SS: Casey Schmitt
OF: Ian Happ
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Marcus Stroman
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Jordan Diaz
3B: Aldemys Diaz
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Kyle Tucker
DFS Stack Considerations
Astros
Braves
Giants
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Strider and Astros makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (CHC, TEX, NYM). In large field the models support fading Framber Valdez and Yankees considering their median projection relative to ownership. In addition to the top stacks, the Rangers, Cubs, and Mets are also viable. As far as pitching, the options make roster construction fairly linear. Strider and Valdez with value from NYY/CHC/SFG or one of those pitchers with Braves and a cheaper SP2.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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