Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Nick Pivetta with Padres bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Brewers and Astros. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Charlie Morton, George Kirby, and Corbin Burnes.
- Seth Lugo rates as the top pitcher in the models, however, there is legitimate PPD risk with that game. Tyler Glasnow George Kirby, Corbin Burnes, and Chris Bassitt rate as the best of the rest.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models, and will have little ownership due to SDP/MIL/HOU chalk. The Astros, Blue Jays, Guardians, and Brewers rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Tyler Glasnow, Chris Bassitt, Nick Pivetta
Tyler Glasnow and Nick Pivetta will both be popular tonight, but look like solid chalk options. If you need some differentiation, Chris Bassitt looks like a strong SP2 alternative in GPPs at lower ownership.
Zeros: Austin Gomber, Jake Irvin, Ryne Nelson
Austin Gomber is awful and pitches in Coors. Needless to say the opposing Padres are extremely popular. Irvin has seen some love around the industry as a way to jam in premium bats but his True AVG says this is probably not worth it. Lastly, nobody is playing Giants despite the matchup.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Nick Pivetta
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Luis Rengifo
SS: Jeremy Pena
OF: Gabriel Arias
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Seth Lugo
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Brandon Lowe
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Aaron Judge
DFS Stack Considerations
Braves
Astros
Blue Jays
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Pivetta and Braves makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (TOR, CLE, LAA). In large field the models support fading Charlie Morton and Padres. In addition to the top stacks, the Guardians, Brewers, and Angels are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Pivetta paired with Morton/Glasnow on the high end and Kirby/Bassitt in the midrange. Corbin Burnes and Seth Lugo look like phenomenal GPP plays tonight.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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