Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Shoei Ohtani with Cubs bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Reds, Dodgers and Twins. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Julio Urias and Jameson Taillon.
- Bryan Woo rates as the top pitcher in the models at low ownership. However, no pitcher projects for more than 16 DK points so it's likely wise to prioritize value at SP and pay up for bats. Ohtani, Urias, and Liberatore rate as the best of the rest.
- The Cubs rate as the top stack in the model and will be popular, but they boast a ridiculous 8+ score of 57.2%. Likewise, the Reds also project strongly but will be popular. The Astros and Yankees rate as the next best options, both with lower ownership. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Adrian Houser, Julio Urias, Byan Woo
Urias boasts a solid True AVG but has a mediocre median projecting relative to his price and will also be high owned. It's likely worth fading him in GPPs, but not necessary to attack him. Houser and Woo look like strong value options tonight with high True AVG, decent point-per-$ projections, and low ownership.
Zeros: Luke Weaver, JP Sears, Clarke Schmidt
Luke Weaver is bad to the point it justifies the Cubs chalk. Similarly, people realize Sears is not good either and the Dodgers will also be popular. That leaves Schmidt versus Houston as a spot to attack at lower ownership.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Julio Urias
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Amed Rosario
3B: Elly De La Cruz
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: Ian Happ
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Bryan Woo
1B: Jordan Diaz
2B: Nico Hoerner
3B: Nick Madrigal
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Jack Suwinski
DFS Stack Considerations
Cubs
Reds
Yankees
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Woo and Cubs makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (NYY, HOU, MIL). In large field, the models support lowering exposure to Ohtani/Urias and outright fading the Twins. In addition to the top stacks, the Astros, Dodgers and Brewers all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Ohtani paired with Urias on the high end and Taillon on the low end. The better move looks to be getting value at pitcher and prioritizing elite bats.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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