Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Aaron Nola with Red Sox bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Phillies and Cardinals. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Reid Detmers and Luis Castillo.
- Bailey Ober rates as the top pitcher in the models at low ownership. Hunter Brown is less than a fantasy point behind Ober and will also be lower owned. Luzardo, Castillo, Allen and Rea rate as the best of the rest.
- The Cardinals rate as the top stack in the model by a wide margin but will be popular. The Brewers, Astros, Dodgers, Rockies, and Marlins rate as the next best options, both with lower ownership. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Jesus Luzardo, Hunter Brown, Bailey Ober
Our True AVG heroes tonight have perfect alignment with GPP pivots. Luzardo can be played in place of Aaron Nola, and either Brown or Ober can replace the more popular Detmers. Mixing and matching these pitchers in your lineups tonight seems like the way to go.
Zeros: Chris Flexen, Adam Wainwright, Dean Kremer
Chris Flexen is absolute trash and the only thing keeping Cardinals ownership in check is the fact this game isn't in Coors. Regardless, the Cardinals look like good chalk. Additionally, no one is playing the Rockies on the other side versus equally bad Wainwright. Lastly, if you trust the Mets they do have an advantageous matchup versus Kremer.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Luis Castillo
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Nolan Gorman
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Yu Chang
OF: Jarren Duran
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Hunter Brown
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Michael Massey
3B: Andruw Monasterio
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Jack Suwinski
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Brown and Cardinals makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (LAD, HOU, MIL). In large field, the models support fading Nola/Detmers and Red Sox. In addition to the top stacks, the Dodgers, Rockies, Marlins, Phillies, and Orioles all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Nola paired with Detmers. However, not only do the models support fading Nola but the Royals look like a phenomenal leverage stack.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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