Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Freddy Peralta with Rangers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Brewers and Red Sox. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole and Dane Dunning.
- Freddy Peralta rates as the top pitcher in the models but will also be the most popular pitcher in DFS tonight. Likewise, Strider rates well and will also be massively popular. Cole Ragans and Gerrit Cole rate as the best of the rest.
- The Brewers rate as the top stack in the model, and despite the ownership they look like good chalk The Rangers, Braves, Royals, and Giants rate as the next best options, both with lower ownership. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Cole Ragans, Spencer Strider, Dylan Cease
Ragans looks like the stone nuts in GPPs tonight. High True AVG, high median projection, low ownership, leverage on chalk Red Sox. Additionally, his cheap price allows you to fit any of the high priced arms without sacrificing bats. Strider is the best pitcher in baseball and you don't need much convincing to play him. Lastly, Cease is a guy you can consider having in your pool, but probably not a single-entry play.
Zeros: Hyun Jin Ryu, Peter Lambert, Brayan Bello
Ryu is the absolute worst True AVG on the slate but based on ownership no one is attacking him with CLE bats. Lambert sucks but the field knows this and Brewers will be popular. Similarly, cheap Royals will be popular versus Bello. However, it's worth noting Dunning is about just as bad as Bello but will be high owned. This makes OAK very appealing as a leverage stack.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Freddy Peralta
1B: Brandon Belt
2B: Brice Turang
3B: Brian Anderson
SS: Ezequiel Duran
OF: Austin Slater
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Cole Ragans
1B: Seth Brown
2B: Davis Schneider
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Ronald Acuna Jr.
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Peralta and Brewers makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (SFG, ATL, KC). In large field, the models support fading Dunning and Red Sox. In addition to the top stacks, the Royals, Giants, Blue Jays, Angels, A's and Yankees are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Peralta paired with Strider/Cole on the high end, or Dunning on the lower end. However, not only do the models support fading Dunning, but the A's look like a phenomenal leverage stack.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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