Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Shohei Ohtani with Red Sox bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Braves, Yankees and White Sox. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Yu Darvish, Kevin Guasman and Max Fried.
- Kevin Gausman rates as the top pitcher in the models. While Gausman will be popular, he does offer both a price and ownership discount off of Ohtani. Max Fried, Bobby Miller and Yu Darvish rate as the best of the rest.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models, and although they look to be popular, much of that ownership is focused on Acuna. The Orioles, Red Sox , and Padres rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Kevin Gausman, Nick Pivetta, Mike Clevinger
Gausman boasts the highest True AVG and highest median projection making him a strong pivot off of Ohtani. It should be noted that Pivetta is likely only going to 4 innings, but that is likely enough to take Royals bats out of consideration. Lastly, Clevinger makes an interesting leverage SP2 in GPPs considering Yankees will carry some ownership.
Zeros: Quinn Priester, Kyle Hendricks, Luis Severino
Quinn Priester looks bad and gets arguably the worst matchup in baseball versus the goliath Braves. It's always stressful rostering Mets, but they do get a plus matchup versus Hendricks tonight. On one hand, Severino sucks, but on the other hand so do the White Sox.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Kevin Gausman
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Pablo Reyes
OF: Andrew Benintendi
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Max Fried
1B: LaMonte Wade Jr.
2B: Mookie Betts
3B:Jordan Westburg
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF:Davis Schneider
DFS Stack Considerations
Braves
Orioles
Red Sox
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Gausman and Red Sox makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (BAL, SDP, HOU). In large field, the models support fading Ohtani as well as both Yankees and White Sox. In addition to the top stacks, the Padres, Astros, Mets and Dodgers all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Ohtani paired with Darvish. However, Gausman, Fried, and Miller all look like better GPP options.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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