Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Miles Mikolas with Arizona bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Pirates, Mets, Cardinals, and Mariners. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Max Scherzer and Tyler Glasnow.
- Tyler Glasnow rates as the top pitcher in the models. While Glasnow will be popular, he does offer both a price and ownership discount off of Scherzer. Merrill Kelly and Max Scherzer rate as the best of the rest.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models and will come in with lower ownership with Coors on the slate. The Cardinals, Yankees, Royals, and Pirates rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Max Fried, Tyler Glasnow, Logan Gilbert
Glasnow is in the top 3 for True AVG and boasts the highest median projection on the slate. Fried and Gilbert are our other two True AVG heroes tonight. However, their projections relative to their price don't offer any value. Glasnow should be a top target in DFS while Fried and Gilbert are probably best used in an MME pool.
Zeros: Chris Flexen, Patrick Sandoval, Clarke Schmidt
Chris Flexen is absolutely horrid, but everyone knows it and this game is in Coors. Sandoval is almost just as bad as Flexen yet nobody is going to play Texas bats. Similarly, the Braves are enough high-upside offense that will come in under-owned versus Schmidt.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Max Scherzer
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Nolan Gorman
3B: Ke'Bryan Hayes
SS: Tommy Edman
OF: Connor Joe
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Merrill Kelly
1B: Seth Brown
2B: Zack Gelof
3B: Austin Riley
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF:Nelson Velazquez
DFS Stack Considerations
Braves
Cardinals
Yankees
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Glasnow and Cardinals makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (ATL, NYY, KC). In large-field, the models support fading Mikolas as well as the Mets. Additionally, you can lower exposure to Dbacks and Mariners. In addition to the top stacks, the Royals, Pirates, DBacks, and Mariners all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Mikolas paired with either Scherzer or Glasnow. However, Merrill Kelly looks like a fantastic pivot off of the heavily-owned Mikolas in GPPs.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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