Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Nick Pivetta with Arizona bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Mariners, Braves, Cardinals, Rockies, and Red Sox. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on David Peterson, Dakota Hudson, and Zach Wheeler.
- Nick Pivetta rates as the top pitcher in the models, but is also the only pitcher carrying high ownership. Additionally, not a single pitcher projects for over 19 DK points so this a good slate to prioritize point-per-dollar value. Bailey Ober, Zack Littell, Zach Wheeler, and Yusei Kikuchi rate as the best of the rest.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models with the Yankees right behind them. There's a significant gap between the Braves/Yankees and the next top teams. The Rangers, Royals, Cardinals, Dbacks, and A's rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Zack Littell, Michael Wacha, Bailey Ober
Littell not only has the top True AVG tonight but has a great median projection considering his price. He makes a great SP2 play in DFS and is a phenomenal pivot off of David Peterson. Ober similarly has a strong true AVG and is near the top of projections, but rates almost identical to Littell at a significantly higher price. Wacha suffers from the same poor value relative to price as Ober.
Zeros: Alex Fadeo, Ty Blach, Bryce Elder
Fadeo is awful, however, the Twins aren't great either. They do perform better against weak pitching and are cheap so they should be in consideration as a DFS value stack. Blach is pitching against the chalk stack in Coors but is legitimately garbage. Bryce Elder gets propped up due to ATL being great, however, he is not. The Yankees are firmly in play versus Elder.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Nick Pivetta
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Buddy Kennedy
SS: Nicky Lopez
OF: Michael Harris II
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Zack Littell
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Zack Gelof
3B: DJ LeMahieu
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF:Giancarlo Stanton
DFS Stack Considerations
Braves
Yankees
Rangers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Pivetta and Braves makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (TEX, NYY, OAK). In large-field, the models support fading Wheeler/Peterson/Hudson as well as the Rockies. In addition to the top stacks, the Royals, Cardinals, DBacks, and A's all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Pivetta paired with either Peterson/Hudson (low) or Wheeler (high). However, all of the chalk pitching outside of Pivetta is either overpriced, volatile, or both.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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