Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Kevin Gausman and/or Blake Snell with Mariners bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the White Sox, Red Sox, Cubs, Braves, and Rangers. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Jon Gray and James Paxton.
- Kevin Gausman rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will carry high ownership. Jon Gray, Aaron Nola, and Blake Snell rate as the best of the rest. Considering price and ownership, Nola looks like a strong pivot off of Snell in GPPs.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models while only projecting as the 5th highest owned. The Yankees, White Sox, Royals, Brewers, Dodgers, and Mariners rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Kevin Gausman, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell
Gausman and Snell represent the chalk tonight for good reason. However, the large field play based on True AVG looks like Clevinger. Clevinger also serves as a pivot off of Jon Gray for High/Low pitching combo construction.
Zeros: Clayton Kershaw, Javier Assad, Matthew Libertore
Kershaw is being impacted by his last start so it's fair to have more optimism than his True AVG implies. Assad and Libertore, however, are legit bad and can targeted with no hesitation.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Kevin Gausman
1B: Gavin Sheets
2B: Josh Rojas
3B: Eugenio Suarez
SS: Corey Seager
OF: Michael Harris II
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Aaron Nola
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Michael Massey
3B: Maikel Garcia
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF:Tyrone Taylor
DFS Stack Considerations
Braves
Yankees
White Sox
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Jon Gray and Braves makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (KC, NYY, MIL). In large-field, the models support fading Snell as well as lowering exposure to Red Sox/Cubs. In addition to the top stacks, the Royals, Brewers, Dodgers, Mariners, and Rangers all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Jon Gray paired with either Gausman or Snell. Additionally, you may see the double spend-up with Gausman/Snell. However, Nola provides some salary relief from Snell with a stronger median projection and lower ownership.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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