Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Spencer Strider/Pablo Lopez with Coors bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Rays, Phillies, and Twins. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Kyle Gibson and Seth Lugo.
- Strider rates as the top pitcher in the models, but will carry high ownership. However, there's also a significant gap in median projection between Strider and the #2 option. Pablo Lopez, Tyler Anderson, and Luis Medina rate as the best of the rest. It's worth noting that there are at least 4 pitchers within 3 projection points of Lopez all at 1/3 the ownership.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models and will be low-owned due to their price and the majority of the field paying up at pitcher. The Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Yankees, and A's rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, Luis Medina, Zach Thompson
Strider has both the top True AVG and top median projection tonight, but will also be the top-owned player in DFS. Just based on his price you can consider the fade on a 13-game slate. Medina and Thompson are best used on DK as neither one has a chance of getting a QS on Fanduel. However, both are cheap enough and project well enough, to be used as pivots off of Gibson/Lugo.
Zeros: Jhony Brito, Brayan Bello, Michael Kopech
Brito and Bello face-off in a garbage fest. Unfortunately, both the Yankees and Red Sox have been mostly disappointing this season. Kopech is already bad and a matchup in Coors won't due him any favors. While the Rockies will carry ownership, they will be the lower-owned side in that game.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Spencer Strider
1B: Jake Cave
2B: Edouard Julien
3B: Yoan Moncada
SS: Elvis Andrus
OF: Matt Wallner
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Tyler Anderson
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Zack Gelof
3B: Justin Turner
SS: Pablo Reyes
OF: Jack Suwinski
DFS Stack Considerations
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Anderson and the Rockies makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (HOU, NYY, LAD). In large-field, the models support fading Gibson/Lugo and White Sox. In addition to the top stacks, the Dodgers, Yankees, A's, Brewers, Red Sox, and Pirates all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Strider paired with Lopez, or one of them paired with Gibson/Lugo. However, the A's and Pirates look like strong GPP leverage stacks versus Gibson and Lopez respectively.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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