Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Luis Castillo and Paul Blackburn/Christian Javier with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on the Rangers, Cardinals, and Mariners. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Drew Rom and James Paxton.
- Allan Winans rates as the top pitcher in the models at low ownership. Winans makes a phenomenal pivot off of heavily owned Javier and Blackburn. Michael Wacha rates as the best of the rest. After Wacha, every pitcher rates similarly and are all just as volatile so it makes sense to prioritize point-per-dollar value and ownership.
- The Red Sox rate as the top stack in the models and will be low-owned due to the opposing pitcher being popular. The Braves, Diamondbacks, Astros, Rangers, Padres, and White Sox rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Michael Wacha, Paul Blackburn, Allan Winans
The heroes on this list tonight should tell you all you need to know about pitching on this slate. That being said, Winans and Wacha have the top two median projections as well as the top two True AVG, and both will be low-owned. Blackburn on the other hand is projected to be chalk and the fade in GPPs should be strongly considered.
Zeros: James Paxton, Ryan Weathers, Jordan Montgomery
The Astros and Diamondbacks are going to be virtually unowned despite going against two of the worst pitchers on the slate in Paxton and Montgomery respectively. Ryan Weathers is also a trash can, but no one seems to be playing Padres either. Attacking any of these pitchers seems like a strong choice in DFS tonight.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research-oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it's not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Paul Blackburn
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Josh Rojas
3B: Ezequiel Duran
SS: Corey Seager
OF: Michael Harris II
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Allan Winans
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Lenyn Sosa
3B: Manny Machado
SS: Pablo Reyes
OF: Tommy Pham
DFS Stack Considerations
Red Sox
Braves
Diamondbacks
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Winans and either the Braves or Rangers makes sense in small-field contests. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (BOS,HOU, ARI). In large-field, the models support fading all of the chalk pitching in Javier/Blackburn/Castillo as well as the Cardinals. In addition to the top stacks, the Rangers, Astros, White Sox, Mariners, and A's all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Castillo paired with either Blackburn or Javier. You will also see a lot of Blackburn/Javier pairings with more expensive bats. However, all three options can be faded in GPPs with Winans as the pivot to Blackburn/Javier and Wacha as the pivot to Castillo.
GL and let's bake some bread!
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